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Manufacturers reported the sharpest fall in output volumes since September 2020, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
Motor vehicles & transport equipment, mechanical engineering, paper, printing & media, and chemicals sub-sectors drove the decline in output over the three months to August. Looking ahead, output volumes are expected to stabilise in the next three months.
Firms anticipate that price pressures will continue to ease going forward, with expectations for selling price inflation over the next three months at their softest since February 2021.
The survey, based on the responses of 277 manufacturing firms, found:
- Output volumes fell in the three months to August (weighted balance of -19%, from +3% in the three months to July), marking the sharpest decline since September 2020. Output is expected to be broadly stable in the three months to November (-3%).
- Output fell in 15 out of 17 sub-sectors in the three months to August, driven by the motor vehicles & transport equipment, mechanical engineering, paper, printing & media, and chemicals sub-sectors.
- Total order books were reported as below “normal” in August and to a greater extent than in July (-15% from -9%). However, this outturn was broadly in line with the long-run average (-13%). Export order books were seen as below “normal,” having deteriorated from last month (-18% from -11%). This was also on a par with the long-run average (-18%).
- Expectations for average selling price inflation were at their softest since February 2021 (+8%, from +18% in July; long-run average of +7%). Expectations for selling price inflation have eased for eight consecutive months, having fallen sharply from the multi-decade high seen in 2022 (+80% in March 2022).
- Stocks of finished goods were seen as more than “adequate” in August (+7% from 0% in July; long-run average of +12%).
Martin Sartorius, CBI principal economist, said: “With output volumes contracting at their fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic and order books deteriorating, this survey makes for gloomy reading for manufacturers. However, easing price pressures will bring some relief to many manufacturing firms and the broader economy.
“The weak outlook for manufacturing activity underlines the need to double-down on delivering sustainable growth. With fierce levels of international competition, the race is on for the UK Government to offer targeted incentives to attract green investment and support firms’ decarbonisation efforts.”
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US and Swedish investors continue to target businesses in the Midlands, with 36 acquisitions in the last 12 months
From April to June 2023, the US remained the most active inbound investors, completing four deals, consistent with the previous quarter where five deals were completed. The results reflect a similar trend from last year, where the US was also the most active inbound investor in the Midlands for the first half of 2022, with US companies completing 12 deals in the same period last year.
The research, conducted quarterly by Deloitte in collaboration with Experian Market IQ, tracks inbound and outbound M&A activity between investors and corporates in the Midlands and overseas. From the second quarter of 2023, the results demonstrate consistency with investment into the Midlands from both US and Swedish companies.
Inbound investment into the Midlands:
In Q2 2023, the Midlands saw 11 inward deals, a fall of 26 per cent on the last quarter and a 52 per cent decrease year on year. The West Midlands remained consistent with seven transactions completed in both quarters of 2023 so far whilst deal volume fell in the East Midlands with a 50 per cent decrease from eight inward deals completed in Q1 compared to four in the last quarter.
The information and communication sector was the most popular area for inbound investment with four deals completed in Q2 2023, whereas the manufacturing sector witnessed a drop from seven deals in Q1 2023 to one deal in the last quarter.
Outbound investment from the Midlands:
The level of overall outbound deals from the Midlands fell from 15 deals in Q1 2023 to eight deals in the second quarter, marking a 46 per cent decrease. The results represent an overall decrease of 27 per cent year-on-year from the same period in 2022. The East Midlands experienced steady levels of outbound deal activity with five deals completed in the second quarter compared to six in Q1 whereas outbound deal levels dropped more significantly in the West Midlands, falling from nine to three deals completed between Q1 and Q2.
The financial and insurance sector in the Midlands remained the most popular areas for outbound deals, with three completed in Q2. Consistent with Q1, the US and Ireland remained the most popular regions for outbound investment with four deals completed in each region. The majority of deals completed in Ireland were made up of acquisitions by professional services companies.
Nick Carr, corporate finance director at Deloitte, said: “These latest results continue to reflect the attractiveness of the Midlands market internationally, particularly to both US and Swedish investors. Despite fewer deal completions in the last quarter, this was not unexpected as a result of various economic issues such as rising inflation and interest rates impacting on deal activity. However, with an ongoing pipeline of deals we expect completions to pick up in the second half of the year.
“Although deal volume has dipped from the previous quarter, the transactions we have so far advised on are of particularly high value, creating significant economic opportunities for businesses in the region. The recent successful completion of Sygnature Discovery’s acquisition of NuChem Sciences is just one example of the international scale of the deals that the Midlands market continues to be at the heart of.”
Celebrate property and construction businesses with a submission for the East Midlands Bricks Awards 2023 – nominations close 31 August!
- Most active estate agent
- Commercial development of the year
- Responsible business of the year
- Residential development of the year
- Developer of the year
- Deal of the year
- Architects of the year
- Excellence in design
- Sustainable development of the year
- Contractor of the year
- Overall winner (this award cannot be entered, the winner will be selected from those nominated)
Book your tickets now
Tickets can now be booked for the East Midlands Bricks Awards 2023 – click here to secure yours. The special awards evening and networking event will be held on Thursday 28 September 2023 in the Derek Randall Suite at the Trent Bridge Cricket Ground from 4:30pm – 7:30pm. Connect with local decision makers over canapés and complimentary drinks while applauding the outstanding companies and projects in our region, and hear from Mike Denby, Director of Inward Investment and Place Marketing at Leicester City Council, our keynote speaker. Dress code is standard business attire. Thanks to our sponsors:











