< Previous40 Business Link www.blmforum.net 2021 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS Looking ahead It’s that time of year, when East Midlands Business Link invites the region’s business leaders to offer up their predictions for the year ahead. It has become something of a tradition, given that we’ve been doing this now for over 30 years. Mark Richardson, Partner & Chartered Surveyor at BB&J Commercial Predictions are clearly a dangerous thing, and I daresay not many of us saw the events of 2020 coming twelve months ago. Working in commercial property, we have seen a significant change in the landscape, primarily in the retail, office and hospitality sectors. Whilst the latter may bounce back as restrictions are eased, the challenge for retail and offices is likely to remain more pronounced. 2020 saw a huge acceleration in online shopping. The drop in both traditional shopping habits and collapse of major national retailers and independents has seen town centres laid bare, and there is little likelihood of a short-term increase in demand for vacant space. The challenge going forward then for landlords, planners and commercial property agents alike is how we repurpose and redesign our town and city centres. I do however believe that we will rise to the challenge, and because all of us are now forced to think beyond our usual reference point of what is ‘normal’ the medium term outlook has to be a focus on the repurposing and redesign of what we do with vacant space. There is an opportunity for alternative commercial and residential use in redundant buildings, but it will need to be led by Government in removing planning obstacles whilst providing financial stimulus and other forms of encouragement to make redevelopment financially viable. Leaving it simply to market forces will I fear not be enough. The need for quality office space will I think come back, maybe with more of an emphasis on flexible serviced accommodation. Working from home allows the functions of a job to be fulfilled, but is no replacement for social interaction and personal collaboration. Businesses need both to adapt and grow, and I don’t believe that can really be done over a Zoom or Teams call. What is certain is that in the short term there will be a lot of vacant property to deal with, and both local and national Government support is by no means over if we want to make our town and city centres viable once again. © Shutterstock /by-studio 40-43.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:06 Page 1www.blmforum.net Business Link 41 2021 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS Andrew Macmillan, Partner and Head of Nottingham office at Gateley Inevitably as an employment lawyer, my predictions focus on the workplace which has gone through huge change in the last 12 months. Employees around the country are likely to return to the office in ever greater numbers with the continued support of the CJRS and arrival of vaccines. However, many businesses will also use this opportunity to create a more flexible working environment, allowing those who wish to do so to continue working from home to some extent. HR teams will need to find innovative ways to support, motivate and supervise a workforce at home and increased efforts to promote mental health and team working will be necessary to make this effective. Policies on homeworking and flexible working should be reviewed and updated to ensure they are fit for purpose. Homeworking also brings with it the opportunity for businesses to widen the recruitment net bringing access to a wider talent pool; location of talent will become less relevant. Many businesses have had to harness technology to withstand the impact of COVID-19. Going forward, this will continue to be the case in order to achieve cost savings and meet changes in customer behaviour. In turn this will increase the need for cyber security, effective systems and reliable support. Companies have a great opportunity to evolve how they deliver goods and services through technology but will still need to meet customer demand for doing business ‘face to face’. Getting the balance right will be crucial. All of these changes will challenge existing management teams. Even before lockdown, almost a third of HR leaders were unsure if their leaders had the skills required to land their business strategy. Now that level of uncertainty is at an all-time high. With effective leadership increasingly becoming the differentiator between business success and failure, we can expect an increased focus on ensuring that senior leaders have the capabilities their businesses will need to succeed. Into 2021, businesses will need to find ways to overcome 2020’s challenges and grasp new opportunities on the horizon. Matt Wheatcroft, Managing Director of Purpose Media At best, I think the most positive adjective most of us would use to describe 2020 is ‘interesting’! In time, as we reflect back on the turnover and profitability in our accounts for 2020, I predict that these figures will be pretty much disregarded as an anomaly from which our businesses either survived, came out stronger, or became the tipping point to failure. As we look ahead to 2021, my personal feeling is that we’ve all had a hard a lesson in business continuity planning. Those that were able to be agile and adapt distribution channels quickly to offer a combination of on and offline buying options will have fared the best and will continue to do so as we move further into 2021. I also predict that more big brands in high retailing will continue to struggle - they are oil tankers and taking too much time to change direction. Additionally, whilst smaller businesses may think they have now got an opportunity to steal a march, they will only do so if their model is sustainable and supported with a clearly defined sales proposition, a loyal customer base and they have invested in their digital presence with buy online or click and collect options. This means that even the small business that did really well in 2020 having found a niche during lockdown when people had no choice but to shop local or buy online could also be in for a shock when normality returns towards winter 2021 and the high street have redefined their offer. Particularly if they also took the leap into having a physical store. Which leads me to the all-important prediction. We will continue to see a raft of “To Let” boards go up in high street locations whilst stakeholders realise they have to invest in order to adopt the combi ‘on and offline’ business model which makes businesses more adaptable to threats and opportunities. The high street will return, but with a better, more customer focused, offer. So whilst the pandemic has advanced everyone’s understanding of and appetite for digital marketing solutions and e-commerce solutions, my prediction is that the revival of local town centres fuelled by these new independent occupiers could also be short lived if they don’t learn from the mistakes of the big brands and ensure they have a sustainable future. 40-43.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:06 Page 2James Pinchbeck, Partner at Streets Chartered Accountants To say that 2020 was a challenging year is probably an understatement. Facing unprecedented circumstances businesses have been resilient, innovative and enterprising. What then does the year ahead look like for business leaders and their businesses? For me I believe 2021 will truly be a year of opportunity, much of which will be in response the lasting impact of the pandemic but also driven by the need to respond to adversity which has affected most if not all of us. The last 12 months has seen a growing number of start-up businesses, this is certainly set to continue over the coming year with those switching from employment to self-employment and looking to bring to market a new business idea. Ironically, perhaps the current economic climate is one which favours the success of a new venture. Whilst gaming rocketed during lockdown, so did the use and application of technology in business and across the workforce. As we embrace new ways of working and look to improve productivity, investment in technology is set to provide significant opportunities for technology providers as well as those supporting the training of IT skills. Restrictions on the way we do and run our businesses have and are likely to continue to see more and more of us adopting new business models, exploring new ways of working, looking at ways of meeting customers’ needs and innovation in marketing our businesses. All provides exciting opportunities for those of us who embrace change, like problem solving and are bold to take on new ideas. Whilst in lockdown the collective benefit of working together may have been limited, the year ahead is likely to see a quest for and the benefit of more collaborative working. Finally, whilst many might find it another financially challenging year, and one perhaps in which it is difficult to reward staff and colleagues, it certainly could be one which provides the opportunity for acknowledging effort and for having a greater sense of empathy and compassion for each other. 42 Business Link www.blmforum.net 2021 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS Scott Knowles, Chief Executive at the East Midlands Chamber As we enter a new era of global trade, the East Midlands has the potential to become the logistics hub of Britain. We already have geography on our side, sitting in the ‘golden triangle’ that puts 90% of Britain within a four-hour drive, as well as a skilled labour force and our crown jewel in East Midlands Airport, the UK’s busiest pure freight airport. It handled record tonnage of cargo in 2020 as the pandemic accelerated trends such as the move towards online shopping, so expect the logistics sector to continue growing – and creating jobs – throughout 2021. There’s every chance the region will bid for a designated area around the airport to be awarded freeport status, bringing tax incentives for exporters and huge inward investment opportunities. The deadline for submissions is 5 February and, if accepted as one of 10 freeports, the East Midlands will have a central role to play in the UK’s post-Brexit trading relationship. Covid-19 and its aftermath will continue to be a disruption we must live with in 2021 but, as vaccination is rolled out and we edge towards something approaching normality, focus on our economic recovery will intensify. This provides an opportunity to reassess the very shape and look of our economy, and there will be a strong emphasis on all things green. We recently launched our Sustainable East Midlands campaign to help businesses in the region engage with the sustainability agenda. We can see that change is coming, whether companies like it or not, through new regulations and a new generation of employees with greater demands for a corporate purpose. But it also brings opportunities – for reducing costs, for securing new business and for innovation. Elliot Cook, Director at Simple Marketing Consultancy Anyone trying to predict the future right now will probably find themselves scratching their head given the wild outcomes 2020 has thrown at us all. Despite an awful year, that is no reason not to be optimistic as we head into 2021. There is light at the end of the tunnel and I predict those that have robust marketing plans will survive stronger and fitter for their investment. Let’s get the C word out the way first and sorry folks but I don’t see any change to the current economy until at least Spring time. By which point I’m hopeful that the vaccine will be as effective as they say it will be and we can start planning for some sort of a normal summer. Like always, January is the most popular time to assess marketing strategy and prepare your business. However I think those who have not already done this and are still waiting for when we get the green light to return to life as normal are going to struggle. The lasting legacy of COVID has been it forced lots of businesses to rethink their product or service offering, with many adopting digital strategies to sell more online. Personally I see this as an accelerating trend that we all need to get on board with. I’m predicting that businesses who invest and put a robust plan together over the coming months will be the ones who accelerate away and those who don’t invest in marketing will be left standing. Now is not the time to bury your head in the sand and hope for the best. Businesses that are proactive and bold in their marketing approach will reap rewards as normality returns. 40-43.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:07 Page 3www.blmforum.net Business Link 43 2021 BUSINESS PREDICTIONS Andrew McFarlane Holt, Director at Wells McFarlane There’s been a lot of reports in the national media about the state of the office market and the long-term impact of the pandemic on our working habits. Whilst not entirely clear what the new pattern will be, it’s certainly not all negative. Early on in the pandemic, there was much written about the “death of the office market,” city centres becoming ghost towns and a widespread acceptance that remote working would become the norm. This was never truly the case in our experience. Whilst there was a dearth in the use of offices, especially high-rise and multi- storey properties, in out-of-town and rural business parks, demand remained equally high and is still present now. Industries such as logistics, technology and home improvement all experienced a surge and we secured deals for businesses in these sectors throughout both lockdowns, facilitating expansions and even helping clients move premises within our portfolio, one of the advantages of using a local specialist! Now, the conversation has shifted again to highlight the importance of the physical office. Alongside the obvious economic recovery benefits, the impact on people’s physical and mental health is being raised and close attention paid to the positives of office working – interaction, productivity, sense of belonging, and a greater distinction between work/life balance. In fact, CBRE research suggests most employees want to explore a hybrid way of working, ideally two or three days in the office, and some 69% of employers anticipate offering office access to all employees by mid-2021. Again, this aligns with our experience of the past year and what we anticipate more of in 2021. Landlords are working more creatively and practically to present their spaces securely. We have seen examples of larger units being reconfigured to suit freelancers or the self-employed, open plan spaces partitioned into pods with standing desk areas and covered head space – some really imaginative and innovative solutions to appeal to the whole business community. Equally business owners are thinking more strategically, and we’ve had plenty of conversations with tenants about mitigating risk but also how they might scale back up as recovery happens. So, I think my overall message for 2021 is encouraging businesses not to panic. Yes, things are different and office spaces might have to work harder but they’re undoubtedly still needed and transactions are happening. Seek advice, manage expectations and we might just strike a solution that’s better all round. Rob Woolston, director at rg+p The commencement of the vaccination programme for Covid-19 is undoubtedly the good news we’ve all been waiting for, and certainly makes for a more optimistic perspective on 2021. How quickly this results in a return to normal working practice, of course, remains to be seen. The isolation we’ve all experienced is not sustainable and the lack of connectivity has really held business back. In our industry, it’s made everything so much harder to do, especially in terms of delivering building work. Running a business that thrives on collaboration has been tough and while we’ve adapted, it’s fundamental that our ability to attend networking events, workshops, new business meetings, etc resumes as soon as possible. My concern is there will be a long hangover and low confidence surrounding these activities. I suspect a hybrid approach is needed to balance the sensitivities of those wishing to maintain social distancing with those who have an appetite to reinstate efficiencies and interactions. From a design view, the pandemic has already changed what’s important and we’re equipping ourselves to be prepared should this happen again. For instance, access to outdoors has become one of the top reasons people move home so I anticipate seeing more roof terraces, winter gardens, habitable balconies and sheltered spaces on new developments. Working from home is now firmly established. House type design must include not only a flexible layout but also the fabric of a building has to offer an energy efficient, healthy environment e.g. with adequate ventilation, daylight and reduced noise. This all impacts wider master planning too, and we expect a shift in travel patterns, provision of public transport routes and car parking. There’s many lessons we can learn but mostly I’m impressed with our resilience. Being forced into new arrangements of living and working, whilst not ideal in many ways, has re-focused our priorities, especially surrounding physical activity, mental health and social contact. Whilst I think it’s safe to say there’s light at the end of the tunnel, it’s also true there are long-term implications for our homes and workspaces. It’s our job as architects, to interpret and present these creatively, thoughtfully and practically. We’re embracing the challenge! 40-43.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:07 Page 444 East Midlands Business Link www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk PUBLIC RELATIONS OK, maybe you loved the film, but I fell asleep about 15 minutes in. However, that is all I needed to hopefully get a key concept over to you about how to create professional marketing campaigns that actually work into your planning for 2021. I’d like you to use this as a new year’s resolution. Let me explain. In the film, the planet’s environment is poisonous, so human/Na’vi hybrids, called ‘Avatars’, must link to human minds to allow for free movement on the planet. In computing, an avatar (also known as a profile picture or userpic) is a graphical representation of a user or the user’s character or persona. I understand that there are also connotations within Hinduism around materialisation of a deity although my knowledge here is very, very small. Please excuse my ignorance. The key theme though is that there is representation of something. So, what the hell does this have to do with marketing? Well, everything. You see, far too many businesses say their customer ‘could be anyone’ or ‘we don’t really have a TYPICAL’ customer, or ‘there’s no one Avatar - terrible film, brilliant message for marketers seeking a new year’s resolution By Greg Simpson, founder of Press for Attention PR and Enterprise Nation Champion for Nottingham. 44-45.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:11 Page 1www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk East Midlands Business Link 45 PUBLIC RELATIONS size fits all with us.’ That is true, to an extent. However, if you want your marketing to really perform, if you want to attract the best customers for your business, for your team, for your goals, for your profit, even...for your enjoyment, you need to have a customer avatar. We’re not talking about a mash-up of all the various customers that you might attract, we are seeking the IDEAL customer, the one you love to provide products or services to and who loves that product or service in return. A proper win/win. Not “that’ll do” or “they might work” or “seems fair” or ‘could find it cheaper but ok’. No ifs and buts. We want the absolute nailed-on best customer you can find. Let your imagination run riot. Who are they? Do they have a specific age range, buying habits, location? What are they able AND willing to spend if you can solve their problem? What do they worry about? What keeps them awake at night that you can help with? That is the key thing, do you even know what their problem is or what opportunity you are bringing to them? Do you know their pain point, and can you easily solve it and explain how you are the right person with the perfect solution? Far too many businesses attempt to foist a service upon a customer that doesn’t actually NEED it, nevermind want it! Now, this is not an exact science and of course you won’t have EVERYONE aligned nicely in your little magical marketing kingdom but if you stick to this approach, life is far easier, and you are far more likely to attract and end up working with the ideal customer in 2021. Wouldn’t that be a nice way to start the new year? 44-45.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:11 Page 246 East Midlands Business Link www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk The interest in EVs has skyrocketed following the Government’s announcement that the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel models will be brought forward to 2030, putting the UK on course to be the fastest G7 country to decarbonise cars and vans. This comes as the first part of a two phased approach, with ‘Step 2’ seeing all new cars and vans be fully zero emission at the tailpipe from 2035. The move is supported by over £1.8 billion to influence a greater uptake of zero emission vehicles for greener car journeys and comes alongside measures for more charge points and grants for homeowners, businesses, and local authorities to install charge points, as well as £582 million in grants for those buying zero or ultra-low emission vehicles to make them cheaper. Car conversion Car conversion AUTOLINK As the interest in electric vehicles (EVs) rises in response to a fresh push from the Government, car enthusiasts are not only looking at new EVs, but considering converting their classics. 46-49.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:15 Page 1www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk East Midlands Business Link 47 Meanwhile, green number plates were introduced in December 2020 to boost awareness of cleaner vehicles on our roads. In response to the Government announcements, electric car searches surged online. One online car supermarket saw searches jump from 310 typical searches per day to 1,679 in the 24 hours after Boris Johnson’s revelation. While many drivers are for the EV switch and understand its environmental benefits, that does not mean they are looking to give up much loved cars they already own, especially classics that they will want to drive for years to come. Fortunately, there is an option gaining ground in conversation that can help resolve this: an electric conversion. Though this is not something new, it is sure to be on the minds of more car owners in the green revolution. With EV conversion kits, car owners can cut their carbon footprint by transforming vehicles into functioning battery- operated EVs. Of course this sacrifices the classic sound one may be used to, and some will argue that this alteration impacts the vehicle’s heritage, but in order to keep these cars on the road in the future, this may be necessary. The option is also utilised to save cars 48 Á AUTOLINK 46-49.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:16 Page 248 East Midlands Business Link www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk bound for scrap, fits in with growing repurposing and up-cycling trends, and is making classic cars useable for daily driving. The number of classic car enthusiasts replacing engines and fuel tanks in cars that originally ran on petrol with batteries and motors is expanding, with the knowledge that they can fulfil the desire for a classic car and avoid critique for running a car with high emissions. As a result various companies are pushing their different options for electric conversion. In November for example Swindon Powertrain launched its electric Classic Mini Kit in response to “growing customer demand to electrify classic cars and original Minis in particular.” However it has been highlighted that the process of electrifying a classic Mini costs as much as a new model when a battery pack and onboard charger are considered after the price of the basic kit. Meanwhile a plethora of specialists offer electrification to revive and make older cars timeless, such as conversion firm Lunaz, which restores vintage cars with electric parts and is doubling its Silverstone workforce to meet demand. Additionally, companies like New Electric are converting cars, but also teaching drivers how to do it themselves. Owning an EV classic fortunately does not mean sacrificing performance. Lunaz’s electric Jaguar XK120 produces 375bhp and 700Nm of torque with its 80kWh battery pack and motor. The car, which has a range of over 250 miles, goes from 0-60mph in five seconds. The vehicle is also enhanced with modern technological features including satellite navigation, smartphone connectivity, fast charging capability, regenerative braking, full climate control and sensitively integrated power steering. Furthermore, the act of converting petrol cars to electric can improve the AUTOLINK 46-49.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:16 Page 3www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk East Midlands Business Link 49 performance of a car, with mechanics able to take the opportunity to redistribute weight. How does EV conversion work? Converting a classic car into an EV essentially sees the car’s engine and drivetrain replaced with motors and a battery pack. While the process is hailed for being achievable from home, it is a complex job suggested only for confident mechanics to take on. It involves tasks such as changing components like suspension to adapt to the altered handling characteristics that come with the weight changes in installing a battery pack. Changes are also required of brakes, to accommodate regenerative braking, lights and heating, so they pull power from the batteries, and more. When weighing up whether to convert a car into an EV, cost is also to be considered - the process is known to be pricy. However, in this, other aspects including the lower running costs of EVs should be taken into account, lower maintenance, the positives of charging at home et al. Though some will be keen to keep their classics relevant for roads with EV conversion, others will be looking for a clean break, to embrace new EVs. Available choice is expanding, with car makers fully backing the electric shift. In the last issue of Lincolnshire Today for instance commitments from Bentley, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and more were discussed. At the end of 2020, at least 50 pure electric cars were available from showrooms, which will only increase with the new Government EV push. From Alfa Romeo’s planned pure- electric compact SUV to Maserati’s electric MC20, to Mini’s new electric Countryman, the upcoming EVs are varied. AUTOLINK 46-49.qxp_Layout 1 08/01/2021 13:16 Page 4Next >