Confidence and output growth fall to lockdown levels as recession looms
Confidence and output growth have fallen to the levels experienced during lockdown as recession looms, according to a new report from BDO.
October saw BDO’s Output and Optimism Indices fall to their lowest levels since the third national lockdown in February 2021, as record-high inflation continues to dampen the economy and prompt fears of a recession, according to the latest Business Trends report from accountancy and business advisory firm, BDO.
The latest figures indicate that inflationary pressures are to blame for the decline across three of BDO’s four indices, as Optimism, Output and Employment all recorded their weakest readings for at least six months. BDO’s Inflation Index reached an all-time high in October forcing businesses to re-evaluate production in line with demand and supply-side headwinds and exercise caution in their outlook and hiring intentions.
October saw BDO’s Output and Optimism Indices plummet to 93.10 and 94.63, respectively, their lowest levels since the third national lockdown in February 2021. Both indices now sit in contractionary territory, below the 95-point mark – regarded as the watershed between growth and decline, an indicator of a recession.
The dip in productivity was driven by a fall across both the Services and Manufacturing Indices for the second month in a row. Continued disruption to global logistics networks and increased input prices have pushed manufacturing activity into negative territory, whilst the cost-of-living crisis has impacted consumer demand, driving down services output.
Confidence amongst businesses followed a similar downward trajectory as the weaker macroeconomic environment drove a seventh consecutive month of decline for BDO’s Optimism Index.
BDO’s Inflation Index rose by 1.67 points in October to a record high of 120.67 following an increase in the energy price cap which caused consumer price inflation to climb. At the same time, diminished spending power due to a weaker currency put considerable upwards pressure on input inflation leading to a record high of 121.26, as businesses importing goods paid higher prices.
Driven by inflationary fears, the Employment Index mirrored waning confidence among businesses with a fall of 1.14 points to 113.05 last month. However, the index has remained resilient, and the unemployment rate stood at a historic low of 3.5% on the most recent reading in the three months to August.
Despite the index remaining firmly in positive territory, hiring intentions are set to decline in the longer-term as businesses continue to tackle mounting inflation and a recession, resulting in further falls in the index over the coming months.
Kaley Crossthwaite, Partner at BDO LLP, said: “A contraction in both optimism and output is a concerning bellwether for firms, as inflation is expected to continue climbing in the run-up to Christmas. A weaker currency and drop in consumer spending power will have real and tangible consequences for firms relying on imports or customers in the retail and services sector, alongside the knock-on effects of managing political and economic uncertainty.
“We also know that rising energy costs are a top concern for nearly half of mid-sized businesses this winter as we’re only just beginning to see the impacts of the energy price cap rise. Firms will be looking to the Autumn Statement for the support they need as they navigate a tough period ahead.”
East Midlands workers name job security and flexible working as top reasons to stay in their jobs
A new survey has revealed that job security and flexible working are the top reasons given by employees in the East Midlands for choosing to remain in their current jobs.
Acas commissioned YouGov to ask employees of East Midlands-based businesses what are the three most important things that are keeping them in their current main job. The poll found that:
- 55% job security;
- 38% flexible working; and
- 33% picked competitive pay and feeling valued, respectively.
Acas East Midlands area director Dwinder Virk said: “Our latest survey gives East Midlands employers a crucial insight into what their employees currently value most in their job.
“For workers in the East Midlands, job security and flexible working are the two main things keeping them in their current roles. One-third also chose competitive pay and feeling valued.
“These findings can help employers when they are considering the types of workplace practices and benefits that aim to attract and retain talent.”
Acas’ advice is that building good staff relations and supporting flexible working can help businesses attract and retain staff as well as increase staff productivity. Flexible working can allow employees to balance work effectively with their personal life and responsibilities.
Leicestershire, Derbyshire and Lincolnshire to receive a share of £17.5m funding boost to spur future growth
Leicestershire, Derbyshire and Lincolnshire are to receive a share of £17.5m funding to support high-growth potential creative businesses in sectors such as film, gaming, fashion and architecture. Businesses will also be able to draw from a fund of up to £7 million being managed by Innovate UK to support them in achieving their growth potential.
The creative industries are one of the major UK economic success stories in recent years. They have grown at twice the rate of the wider economy since 2010 – generating approximately £115.9 billion for the economy and providing more than two million jobs.
Indeed, Data from the Association for UK Interactive Entertainment (Ukie) estimates the value of the UK consumer games market reached a record £7.16 billion in 2021.
Today’s plans will build on this stellar success and make sure the next generation of creative talent succeeds, companies continue to scale-up and those that need support have access to it.
Creative Industries Minister Julia Lopez said: “From product design and video games to music and film, the creative industries are a stellar UK success story.
“Today’s plans will help get more creative businesses off the ground so they can spread jobs and wealth and help more people, including those from underrepresented backgrounds, break into these world-class sectors.”
Each of the six regions have been awarded £1.275 million in grant funding from the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) to develop a targeted programme of business support. Companies applying for finance will need to demonstrate their potential to grow rapidly and become sustainable through private investment. The investment fund and investor building activities will be delivered by the UK’s innovation agency, Innovate UK. Also announced are seventeen start-up video games studios which have been given grants of up to £25,000 to realise their ideas for innovative new projects as part of the UK Games Fund. The cash injection is for firms across the country with great ideas but lacking in development funding. The fund, which was established in 2015, has received increased government funding of more than £8 million for 2022 to 2025. It aims to help high-potential companies raise new funding, spur economic growth and create new jobs. Games spanning formats from virtual reality to mobile and themes from space exploration to eco-education, with developers based across the country – from Cardiff to Paisley and Brighton to Yorkshire – will benefit from the scheme’s latest funding round.Revival of iconic Derby retail street looming
Independent Derby apparel designer, Karl Shaw is returning to Sadler Gate, this time at number 49, with his ‘Derby centric’ clothing venture ‘Mr Shaw’.
Karl Shaw, Managing Director at Mr Shaw, said: “We want to bring Sadler Gate back to life. Being a Derby heritage brand, we have the city deep rooted within in our DNA. As well as opening our retail shop at number 49 where we will be selling Mr Shaw apparel, we will be using the space to generate a hub for creatives on the upper floors, a coffee and craft beer bar, a pop-up selling space and promote our ‘Reminisce’ music nights, designed to celebrate Derby’s 90s music culture.”
It’s no secret that the Cathedral Quarter has been hit by various economic factors affecting footfall and trade over recent years. But, there remains a resilient hunger by local businesspeople who are committed to returning culture rich retail streets like Sadler Gate back to their former glory.
Local property company, Clowes Developments, own several properties in and around Derby City Centre. Whilst most of their units are fully occupied, their team have been looking to find suitable occupiers for their empty retail units on Sadler Gate, The Strand and St James’ Street to help regenerate this historic part of the town, breathing fresh life into the city centre.
Sadler Gate and its surrounding streets including Iron Gate, The Strand and The Strand Arcade are collectively known as the ‘Cathedral Quarter’. Historically, this part of town has been the home to high-end, independent, luxury shops with a diverse culture.
Since the 1970s there have been some legendary shops which coined the path for high-end commerce within Derby. The likes of Napoleons and Josephine’s which then became His and Hers, Ziggies, Seargent’s Barbers, R E Cords, Roomes Fish Mongers, Potts Shoemakers, Interior Options, The Eye Gallery, Big Blue Coffee House, Limeys, Scenario, Ethos, the Forum, Mark Scott hairdressers… this list goes on. These names all played a huge part in forming the history and reputation of Sadler Gate. The stories created on this street still linger in the conversations of its frequenters and will continue to do so for years to come.
Unfortunately, many of those names have since closed their doors but some continue to flourish and evolve with the trails and tribulations of high street retail. Canopy, established in 1992 has been a resident of Sadler Gate for many years. Thirty years on and the family business continues to face its challenges with creative optimism for turning a challenge into an opportunity whilst retaining its core values of great product and excellent customer service. Brigden’s has also stood the test of time and remained true to is roots in the Cathedral Quarter. In recent years, Brigden’s have expanded their offering to include a new shop dedicated to country attire, selling high-end lifestyle brands including Fairfax & Favor, Le Chameau and Holland Cooper. Importantly, there are many other businesses thriving along and around this historic street.
Retail is not the only reason Sadler Gate holds such nostalgic fond memories for its patrons. The 90s and 00s were fantastic periods for the Sadler Gate night life scene. Some of those hot spots are still providing evening entertainment years on. Vines, The Old Bell, which has been recently renovated, and The Blue Note are still going strong, keeping the true spirit and kudos of Sadler Gate alive.
Karl and his wife, Emma knows the significance and history of this part of Derby City Centre. They are keen to support the revival of Derby’s iconic Sadler Gate by encouraging collaboration between neighbouring occupiers and hosting events to encourage people back to the old streets of Derby.
“When I started, Mr Shaw was a great way to keep my creative juices flowing; free from commercial and client constraints. I had often thought about developing a clothing brand as fashion is a great love of mine and I can’t deny the buzz from knowing someone would wear my brand… a living, breathing identity. I’m excited to combine this with my passion for Derby as we open up Mr Shaw House and combine our love for fashion, music, creativity, craft beer and coffee all in one place!”
Kevin McFarlane, associate director at Clowes Developments, commented on the deal: “As landlords of several commercial properties within Derby city centre, Clowes recognise their responsibility to help regenerate the town.
“We have been working with the Council and invested parties such as Marketing Derby over the past year to provide upgraded premises for start-ups and continue to improve the aesthetics of some of our more tired looking properties. Our aim is to encourage occupiers and promote increased footfall into the area.
“We are delighted to welcome Karl Shaw back to one of our properties on Sadler Gate. Our vision and aspirations for Derby are aligned and we wish him all the best in his venture.”
Multi-million landmark scheme reaches completion in Chesterfield
Seven street-level retail units at Elder Way in Chesterfield are now complete and ready for tenants.
Elder Way, a former Co-op department store in the North Derbyshire town has been transformed into a landmark mixed-use leisure scheme by regeneration specialists Jomast Developments.
The transformation of the street-level units, all with glazed frontages, has now been completed, offering prospective tenants a flexible and blank canvas for their business. The units, which range in size from 1,420 sq.ft to 16,076 sq.ft are targeted at food and drink businesses. Additionally, there is 16,285sq.ftof gym/D2 space in the basement of the building.
The site boasts a hotel on the upper floors and now, retail units on the ground floor. Each of the units has been boarded out and painted, creating a blank canvas for new tenants.
Situated in the golden triangle of investment with Chesterfield town centre, Elder Way sits within the recently completed £19.9million Northern Gateway regeneration scheme which comprises a new multi-storey car park, the Northern Gateway Enterprise Centre and large-scale public realm improvements.
Jomast, one of the UK’s leading property development and investment specialists, acquired the famous 1930s, Mock-Tudor building in 2016. It has since developed it into hotel accommodation and the new retail units which are targeted at food and drink operators. The new units complement the upper two floors of the four-storey building which have been operated as a 92-bed Premier Inn hotel since 2019.
Mark Hill, Development Director at Jomast said: “The transformation of the iconic and characterful former department store in Chesterfield has been a labour of love that has created a vibrant new leisure quarter for the town of which we are immensely proud. Interest in the units has been strong and we hope to welcome tenants soon.”
Mark added: “The position and location of the site at times has been challenging but our ongoing collaboration with Chesterfield Brough Council has enabled us to create a premium and attractive business address on Chesterfield’s high street.”
Northern Gateway Enterprise Centre, which opened in July earlier this year, already boasts more than 50% occupancy with 17 of the 32 offices now tenanted.
Chesterfield Borough Council is making further investment in the town centre following £20million of Levelling Up funding which, along with additional funding from Chesterfield Borough Council, will transform key event spaces and public areas. The £26million Revitalising the Heart of Chesterfield scheme that will revitalise and better connect key areas of the historic town centre and revamp the Stephenson Memorial Hall. Work has already started and will be completed in phased until 2025.
Elder Way and the golden triangle of investment in the town centre is part of £2billion of regeneration projects currently underway across Chesterfield, which includes the £400million Peak Resort and £340million Chesterfield Waterside developments.
Situated in the golden triangle of investment with Chesterfield town centre, Elder Way sits within the recently completed £19.9million Northern Gateway regeneration scheme which comprises a new multi-storey car park, the Northern Gateway Enterprise Centre and large-scale public realm improvements.
Jomast, one of the UK’s leading property development and investment specialists, acquired the famous 1930s, Mock-Tudor building in 2016. It has since developed it into hotel accommodation and the new retail units which are targeted at food and drink operators. The new units complement the upper two floors of the four-storey building which have been operated as a 92-bed Premier Inn hotel since 2019.
Mark Hill, Development Director at Jomast said: “The transformation of the iconic and characterful former department store in Chesterfield has been a labour of love that has created a vibrant new leisure quarter for the town of which we are immensely proud. Interest in the units has been strong and we hope to welcome tenants soon.”
Mark added: “The position and location of the site at times has been challenging but our ongoing collaboration with Chesterfield Brough Council has enabled us to create a premium and attractive business address on Chesterfield’s high street.”
Northern Gateway Enterprise Centre, which opened in July earlier this year, already boasts more than 50% occupancy with 17 of the 32 offices now tenanted.
Chesterfield Borough Council is making further investment in the town centre following £20million of Levelling Up funding which, along with additional funding from Chesterfield Borough Council, will transform key event spaces and public areas. The £26million Revitalising the Heart of Chesterfield scheme that will revitalise and better connect key areas of the historic town centre and revamp the Stephenson Memorial Hall. Work has already started and will be completed in phased until 2025.
Elder Way and the golden triangle of investment in the town centre is part of £2billion of regeneration projects currently underway across Chesterfield, which includes the £400million Peak Resort and £340million Chesterfield Waterside developments.
South Lincolnshire Food Enterprise Zone welcomes first tenant
Moving into new office space was a well-calculated decision for local accountant Tim Burrows, of Station One Accountants.
Tim owns and runs the accountancy firm, whose main client base is agricultural and food businesses, making the South Lincolnshire Food Enterprise Zone the perfect location for his new office.
Cllr Colin Davie, executive councillor for economy and place at Lincolnshire County Council, said: “The Hub building is a great new space for established, growing and start-up businesses. I’m delighted that an existing local business has chosen to re-locate here as the first of many new tenants, and wish Tim every success.
“All businesses who locate at the Hub will benefit from being at the forefront of new developments and innovation in agri-tech and in turn, will add their own expertise to support the sector.”
Tim Burrows, said: “To have my own office with high-tech spec and the support of The Hub staff, but with the opportunity to hire a Meeting Room as and when I needed one, was just what I was looking for, and I am not disappointed.
“When the Café is open on the ground floor, it will be even more attractive for client visits in a more informal, but professional environment.
“There is plenty of parking on site, with EV charging points too. The building has been well thought out, with a shower room for example, if you cycle to work.
“I am looking forward to the opportunity of working alongside other companies to offer advice where I can with my experience of working as an accountant within the food industry to help their business flourish.”
Cambridge & Counties Bank appoints Patrick Newberry as its new Chairman
Specialist lender Cambridge & Counties Bank has appointed Patrick Newberry as its new Chairman. He replaces Simon Moore, who retired from the Bank after serving 10 years as a Board member.
Patrick joined Cambridge & Counties Bank as Non-Executive Director in June 2021, taking responsibility as Chair of Audit from September 2021. His executive career spans over 30 years with PwC, where his primary focus was on strategy, performance improvement as well as all things regulatory within the financial services and insurance sectors. During this time, he was the lead in major transformational programmes and worked with large financial institutions to set strategy and transform performance. Over the last nine years, Patrick has spent his time as non-executive director and freelance consultant for a number of financial and non-financial services organisations. He is currently on the Board as Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee at Brunel Pensions Partnership, is a Commissioner of Historic England and Chair of its Audit and Risk Committee. He is also Chair of the Cornwall College Group. Patrick Newberry, Chairman at Cambridge & Counties Bank said: “I’m honoured to be taking on the role of Chairman at a time when Cambridge & Counties Bank is continuing to expand its presence across the UK and building on its strong growth momentum. The bank’s tailored approach and deep relationships with clients and brokers allows it to offer a differentiated service and we have seen continued demand across 2022.” Cambridge & Counties Bank announced in June this year that total lending had topped £1 billion for the first time. Originally focused on the East Midlands region, the Leicester-headquartered bank has seen staff numbers increase to more than 200 over the past decade, with major offices now in Sheffield, Bristol, London, and Glasgow.Joules in bridge financing discussions as working capital falls below expectations
Joules, the Harborough-based designer fashion group, has seen performance fall below expectations due, it says, to “a challenging UK economic environment which has negatively impacted consumer confidence and disposable income”
Their trading underperformance has resulted in the Company’s working capital position falling below expectations, which has led the company to discussing bridge financing options as well as considering a Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA), enabling it to pay creditors over a fixed period.
Net debt at the end of October was £25.7m with headroom of £11.4m, according to a statement to the London Stock Exchange today [Monday 7th Nov 2022 ]. However, the statement goes on to explain that this headroom is reduced by £5.6m of ‘trapped cash’ (i.e. cash held in transit by payment providers etc) and would also be reduced by repayment of the £5m short-term RCF (“STRCF”), due for repayment on 30th November 2022.
The Company is therefore in discussions with Tom Joule and its lender in regard to a bridge financing proposal in order to enable continued progress to be made with its re-financing plans. Should that bridge financing proposal, or its terms, not be agreed, the Company states that it expects it would be unable to repay the STRCF on its due date for repayment.
The Company had previously announced that it is assessing its ongoing financing requirements, including a possible equity raise, to allow the Company to strengthen its balance sheet and provide a strong platform to support its turnaround plan.
Since that announcement, the Company has had advanced discussions with a number of strategic investors, including Tom Joule, to provide a cornerstone investment in an equity raise.
It is the Group’s intention to commence consultation with key stakeholders, including suppliers, on the turnaround plan including potential alternative options, should they be required.
Consumers plan for thrifty Christmas as 59% say they’ll have less to spend
UK consumers are signalling a thriftier approach to the 2022 festive season, as 59% believe they will have less money overall to spend during the Christmas period, according to new research from Deloitte.
Surveying over 3,000 UK consumers about their spending intentions for the retail sector’s ‘Golden Quarter’, 38% of respondents say they will switch to cheaper brands or stores to seek out gifts and, when it comes to Christmas Day dinner, one in three (35%) consumers plan to do at least part of their food shop at a discounter supermarket.
With rising costs adding pressure to budgets, one in ten (11%) intend to purchase gifts either second hand or via reselling platforms this year.
Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, said: “Consumers are entering the festive season with budgets under more pressure this year, and it is not surprising that almost all are considering affordability and adapting their typical Christmas spending habits in one way or another. The economic circumstances in which we enter the period has, perhaps inadvertently, fostered a spirit of thrift amongst some consumers who are looking to save money on celebrations this year.
“For some, this will mean looking to the ‘pre-loved’ market for gifts or scouting out presents via resellers. For others, this could mean shopping with cheaper stores or brands or, in the case of food, buying Christmas dinner ingredients from the discounter supermarkets.”
With the retail calendar also fast-approaching large promotional events, such as Black Friday, nearly half (46%) of consumers say they intend to buy more gifts either on sale or discounted this year.
Céline Fenech, consumer insight lead at Deloitte, commented: “Whilst it is not unusual for consumers to look for discounts in the run up to Christmas, this year’s shopping events, like Black Friday, could see even more interest than usual as budget-conscious consumers look for smarter ways to bring down the cost of their Christmas spending.”
According to Deloitte’s data, 54% of consumers intend to shop for Christmas in November and the first two weeks of December; a period which includes Black Friday.
Fenech added: “Some consumers have also indicated that they will shop closer to Christmas Day to not only manage budgets but also take advantage of any discounts. For retailers, this will mean ensuring availability of product ranges to suit all budgets and include more ‘gift’ items within promotional ranges, expanding on the clothing and footwear, and electronic goods that are usually purchased during Black Friday events.”
Over half (56%) of consumers believe they will be spending more this Christmas because of rising prices. Whilst many consumers are looking to be more resourceful with budgets, 8% state they will simply not buy Christmas gifts this year.
Vernon-Harcourt concluded, “Ongoing rising costs have seen consumer spending habits shift for a prolonged time, with non-essential items often the first to go. Unfortunately, it appears that this cost-cutting will also be reflected on some aspects of Christmas celebrations as some consumers will forgo gift-giving altogether. Whilst this will be a difficult financial decision for some, others will have re-prioritised what the festive period means to them, following a number of COVID-impacted Christmases.”
More than 80% of UK SMEs want to switch to electric vehicles
Most UK small businesses want to switch to electric vehicles but are held back by rising vehicle costs and electricity bills, new data from NatWest shows.
Despite the research revealing that 81% of SMEs want to transition to green transport, the current economic conditions are delaying plans rather than causing them to be abandoned entirely. Of those looking to take their first steps into greener transport, only 40% plan to start within the next 2 years, highlighting the need for greater support to allow businesses to fulfil their climate ambitions sooner.
SMEs are reporting that the price of electricity is a barrier for more than a quarter (28%), whilst vehicle costs are deterring a further third (32%). However, the business case for adopting electric vehicles appears to be the main motivator for SMEs looking to electrify their fleet (44%), however emissions reductions (40%) and sustainability concerns (36%) are also found to be key drivers in the move to greener transport.
Recognising the barriers preventing SMEs from taking action to improve their sustainability, NatWest Group, through Lombard, has launched Green Asset Finance which gives businesses a way to finance assets that help to make their businesses more sustainable, such as electric vehicles. Since July 2021, Lombard has provided £1.3billion in climate and sustainable funding, to businesses transitioning to electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and other renewable assets, including those in the Agricultural sector.
Commenting on the findings, Ian Isaac, Managing Director at Lombard, NatWest Group, said: “It’s clear to see there is appetite among UK small businesses to transition to electric vehicles in order to both lower fuel costs, and make a significant contribution towards the nation’s climate targets.
“However, the current economic climate and immediate cashflow concerns means that many SMEs feel they need to put plans on hold. We’d encourage any business looking to take that first step in their own sustainability journey to research the support measures available.
“The first step on this journey is the hardest and it’s a big decision for businesses. But our research shows the intention to transition is there, and the sooner businesses take that first step, the sooner they will be able to see the benefits. At NatWest and Lombard, we can help them make sense of their business case even against the backdrop of increasing energy costs.”
The bank is also working in partnership with energy tech company Octopus Energy to offer businesses EV charge points at discounted rates, and last year partnered with EV8 Technologies to launch the EV8 Switch app, which uses real world data to help drivers understand if switching to an EV makes economic sense for them.
If it does, the bank can then offer funding to SMEs to allow them to spread the cost of transition to EV, through options such as contract hire. This allows businesses to have certainty around vehicle operating costs over a fixed period, as well as the option to regularly refresh their vehicles and adapt their fleet to meet changing business needs and guard against the risk of technology obsolescence.
NatWest has recently begun offering Green Loans and Green Asset Finance to SMEs from £25,000, ensuring that more businesses can access funding to help transition to more sustainable practices such as electric vehicles, in turn reducing costs in the long term, all whilst supporting UK net zero targets.
NatWest has also created a new Carbon Planner, a free to use digital platform designed to help UK businesses manage their fuel and operational costs and reduce their carbon footprint to help them go and grow greener. This includes providing a cost of transport overview that businesses can then use to build a business case for investing in their transition to net zero. Since launch around two-thirds of businesses that have used the NatWest Carbon Planner have produced a carbon reduction action plan for their business.
The bank has recently also launched one of the UK’s biggest EV car parks at its Scotland headquarters at Gogarburn in Edinburgh, investing in 264 chargers for colleagues and visitors to charge their electric vehicle. The launch forms part of the bank’s aim to halve its own operations emissions by 2025.
