New data from NatWest’s May Regional Growth Tracker points to a modest resurgence in business confidence across the UK, with firms reporting more optimistic outlooks and slight improvements in activity levels. Half of the 12 monitored regions reported growth in output, while sentiment about future activity rose in all areas. The North West and London saw the largest monthly increases in expectations, with the West Midlands remaining the most optimistic overall.
However, the recovery remains patchy. Wales posted the fastest growth in business activity during May, while London recorded its weakest performance in two and a half years. Inflows of new business rose only in Wales and stabilised in the East of England, with all other regions seeing a drop, led by a sharper decline in the East Midlands.
Employment figures were generally down, with Scotland being the only region to report a slight increase in headcount after six months of stagnation. The North West continued to cut jobs for the eighth straight month, though the pace slowed.
Order backlogs fell across the board for the third consecutive month, with the North West experiencing the most significant drop in outstanding work. Scotland saw the mildest decline.
Pricing trends moderated slightly, with the rate of increase in average prices charged slowing in every region compared to April. Wales recorded the biggest fall in output price inflation, while Northern Ireland and the West Midlands saw the highest ongoing pressure.
Input costs rose at a softer pace than the previous month but remained above historical norms. The South West and East of England faced the steepest increases, while Scotland saw the most subdued rise. Businesses continue to raise prices to manage persistent cost pressures, including rising labour expenses following April’s national insurance changes.
