Dilly ding, dilly WRONG – Don’t blame Ranieri, says Loughborough scholar

Claudio Ranieri by Roberto Vicario [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Claudio Ranieri’s shock sacking from Leicester City Football Club just nine months after achieving the seemingly impossible has been analysed and explained by Loughborough University management scientist Professor Gilberto Montibeller.

Professor Montibeller, of the School of Business and Economics, has examined Leicester City’s decision to axe the 65-year-old Italian manager following a poor run of results in the Premier League – and said the title winning chief is not to blame.

Writing in his blog, the academic explains that Ranieri fell afoul of a concept from behavioural decision research known as “regression fallacy”.

Regression fallacy is the idea that the performance of a system, in this case the football club, tends to move towards its average after an exceptional performance – a view voiced by several high-profile pundits in recent weeks.

Montibeller said: “The regression fallacy, which affected supporters and the media, attributed the main cause of LCFC’s success to Ranieri.

“While not being a football expert, given these data, I believe that winning the Premiership was due to a number of different factors instead: players that were outperforming that year, team spirit, a good coach and, indeed, luck!”